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Overview
What is Hermes?
Hermes monitors Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets for momentum signals — price velocity, volume spikes, spread tightening, and expected value filtering. It runs two strategies simultaneously: a 15-minute crypto scalper and a swing trader for sports and macro markets. Everything is logged to SQLite with a live WebSocket dashboard served over Cloudflare Tunnel.
Strategies
Crypto Scalper
Trades 15-minute BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE markets on Kalshi. Catches momentum on YES/NO price swings confirmed by live Binance candle data. Flat stake per signal, out within minutes. Most active overnight during Asian and European sessions.
Swing Trader
Longer-duration positions on sports and macro markets. Filtered by EV threshold — only trades when expected value clears a minimum edge. Max 6 open positions at a time.
Signal Logic
Price Velocity
Detects rapid directional movement in YES/NO contract prices as a primary momentum indicator.
Volume Momentum
Tracks abnormal volume spikes that precede significant price moves.
Spread Tightening
Identifies markets where the bid/ask spread is compressing — a sign of increasing conviction.
EV Filter
Every signal is scored against a historical win rate database. Trades only fire when expected value clears a minimum threshold, blocking low-edge setups.
Binance Candle Confirmation
Before placing a scalper trade, Hermes pulls live 15m and 1h candles from Binance. A 2-of-3 majority across completed candles must agree with the Kalshi signal direction — mixed signals suppress the trade.
Per-Coin Win Rate Gate
Each coin's last 15 trades are evaluated independently. If a coin's recent win rate falls below 40%, it's blocked until performance recovers — self-healing as new winners come in.
Per-Engine Circuit Breaker
Scalper, swing, and paper engines each have independent circuit breakers. A losing streak on one engine won't lock down the others — isolation keeps all three running cleanly.
Infrastructure
Gigabyte Brix — Arch Linux + Hyprland
Running 24/7 as the primary node. Systemd service auto-starts Hermes on boot with auto-restart on failure. Watchdog process monitors health and force-restarts on stall.
Dashboard
Mobile-friendly PWA with live WebSocket updates. Scalper and swing tabs, combined P&L/Balance/Overlay chart, open positions, signal log, and analytics — accessible anywhere via Cloudflare Tunnel.
Roadmap
Go Live
After a full month of paper trading data, flip to real money. Starting at $50–100 with the scalper only — swing disabled until Prometheus is ready.
Prometheus Integration
Ollama-powered autonomous agent will consume Hermes signals alongside PolyWhales whale data for AI-driven trade decisions when the Mac Mini arrives.