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Overview
What is Hermes?
Hermes monitors Kalshi prediction markets for momentum signals — price velocity, volume spikes, spread tightening, and expected value filtering. It runs two strategies simultaneously: a 15-minute crypto scalper and a swing trader for sports and macro markets. Everything is logged to SQLite with a live mobile-friendly dashboard served over Cloudflare Tunnel.
Strategies
Crypto Scalper
Trades 15-minute BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP markets on Kalshi. Catches momentum on YES/NO price swings. Flat stake per signal, out within minutes. Most active overnight during Asian and European sessions.
Swing Trader
Longer-duration positions on sports and macro markets. Filtered by EV threshold — only trades when expected value clears a minimum edge. Max 6 open positions at a time.
Signal Logic
Price Velocity
Detects rapid directional movement in YES/NO contract prices as a primary momentum indicator.
Volume Momentum
Tracks abnormal volume spikes that precede significant price moves.
Spread Tightening
Identifies markets where the bid/ask spread is compressing — a sign of increasing conviction.
EV Filter
Every signal is scored against a historical win rate database. Trades only fire when expected value clears a minimum threshold, blocking low-edge setups.
Infrastructure
Gigabyte Brix — Arch Linux
Running 24/7 as a headless server node. Systemd service auto-starts Hermes on boot with auto-restart on failure.
Dashboard
Mobile-friendly PWA with live WebSocket updates. Scalper and swing tabs, P&L charts, open positions, and signal log — accessible anywhere via Cloudflare Tunnel.
Roadmap
Go Live
After a full month of paper trading data, flip to real money. Starting at $50–100 with the scalper only — swing disabled until Prometheus is ready.
Prometheus Integration
Claude-powered agent will consume Hermes signals alongside PolyWhales whale data for AI-driven trade decisions when the Mac Mini arrives.